Assessing US import tariffs on Canadian crude

President-elect Trump has promised to implement sweeping tariffs upon taking office. Recently, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported into the US from Canada. The prospect of tariffs introduces considerable risk to our forecasts for US crude sourcing, US refinery runs, US product prices and demand, Canadian crude trade flows, regional price differentials, and even WCSB supply. In this outlook, we assess the wide-ranging ramifications that US tariffs on Canadian crude would have on markets in each country.