Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils long-term outlook H2 2020
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Report summary
In our H2 2020 long-term update, the global oil market continues to face significant uncertainty. A demand recovery is in sight with effective vaccines announced recently. But this update shows a greater effect from the pandemic than we expected in our spring long-term outlook. In this report, we extend our outlook to 2050. Key topics and highlights include: • Prices are adjusted lower in the medium-term, as downward revisions to demand outpace those to supply • An assessment of the outlook for demand post-pandemic and the timing of a peak • How weaker prices and changing tight oil operator behaviour are having an impact on the scale and pace of onshore US Lower 48 growth • Increasing reliance on OPEC capacity with non-OPEC supply in decline from the early-2030s
Table of contents
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Global supply: US onshore bears the brunt of downgrades through the 2020s
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to US lower 48 offset by conventional upgrades longer term
- US Lower 48: lower growth pushed further into the future
- Upward revisions dominate conventional production in the longer-term
- OPEC long-term capacity increases despite downward revisions
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Global demand: global liquids demand reaches a peak after 2035 and turns to structural decline during the 2040s
- Sector demand trends
- Fuel demand from light vehicles
- Risks to global liquids demand
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