Our Brent price outlook has been revised down to $55/ bbl in 2017 and $50/ bbl in 2018 based on our assumption OPEC does not rollover its agreement for 2018. In the short term we see higher than expected stock build driven mainly by temporary weakness in the three engines of demand growth. With supply growth in 2017 of just 140 000 b/d and demand expected to gain 1.3 million b/d we see price support in the second half of 2017 as global implied stocks are drawn down. Underpinning weak supply growth this year is our assumption that OPEC and Russia rollover supply cuts for H2 2017 and adherence remains strong. Notably lower prices have implications for US producers. Year end 2018 Lower 48 crude output is 170 000 b/d lower than in our previous forecast. Outside of core acreage the economics of most tight oil assets will be stressed in H1 2018. Rig count decline in the Permian Bakken Eagle Ford and Niobrara is now expected to be slightly more severe than in our March forecast.