Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2024
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Report summary
September’s focus on the potential for weak demand in China was pushed aside in early October due to the surge in geopolitical tension in the Middle East. After rising to $81/bbl on 7 October 2024, Brent gave back much of the risk premium and the focus on weak demand returned. Geopolitical tension remains and we discuss the risks to the oil market in this report.
Table of contents
- Market outlook
- Global supply: OPEC+ policy unchanged as market assesses the escalation of conflict in the Middle East
- Non-OPEC supply: outlook driven by upgrades to US NGLs and Indonesia in 2025 and 2026
-
US Lower 48 annual oil production will grow annually at 3% through 2026
- Shale producers continue to embrace longer laterals and focus on completion efficiency
- The drive for consolidation and efficiency gains among Lower 48 operators remains strong
- OPEC: no change to unwinding of cuts; compensation schedules being met
- Global demand: Global manufacturing picks up next year, supporting a rebound in distillate demand
- Liquids demand by key markets
- Global outlook for 2025 and 2026
- Risks to the outlook
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What's included
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