North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: April 2023

Wood Mackenzie recently completed aerial surveillance on TMX pipeline construction and Cenovus’ Superior refinery restart, as well as analysis on the impacts of US PHMSA’s updated pressure restriction on the Keystone pipeline system. In this report, we provide updates on these critical developments and discuss our views of market impacts. Meanwhile, US waterborne exports soared to a record monthly average above 4.8 million b/d in March, spurred by a buying spree in Asia. Will this new peak prove to be a one-month outlier or a new, sustainable plateau? In this report, we analyze the drivers behind the export surge and our outlook for volumes moving forward. Other topics addressed in this report include: • Updates to our WTI/Brent forecast amid shifting gasoline cracks and VLCC rates • How the notable US Spring refinery turnaround season is progressing • Analysis on Permian well productivity in key New Mexico counties