Insight
Oil and refining impact of US reciprocal tariffs
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Report summary
On 2 April, President Trump issued sweeping tariffs by executive order with a minimum rate of 10% applied to all trade partners, with some economies and sectors facing much more severe rates. Exemptions include: Energy and commodity chemical imports from reciprocal tariffs Imports from Canada and Mexico that comply with the USMCA trade agreement (which includes compliant oil and gas) Drawing on our high-tariff scenario, global GDP growth is at risk to be 0.5 percentage points (pp) lower in 2025 and 0.8 pp lower in 2026. This Insight examines the implications for oil demand, oil price and refining margins.
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