Insight
Reversing a giant: assessing North American market impacts and project-level economics from a reversal of the Capline pipeline
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Beginning in 1Q22 a reversal to southbound service of the Capline pipeline — the lone remaining major northbound flowing system out of the US Gulf Coast market — will complete the tectonic re-plumbing of North American crude infrastructure kicked off nearly a decade ago by revitalized US onshore production growth. However, there are questions about the market demand for such a reversal under present conditions with the new southbound capacity being added to an already fairly balanced Midwest market. In this insight we: • Explore market conditions facing the Capline reversal at the Patoka, IL origin • Overview the St. James refining market and size the opportunity for volumes on Capline • Assess pricing power of the reversed system and ultimate modelled volume profile • Dive into project economics based on modelled volumes and tariffs
Table of contents
- Capline: a brief history
- Patoka market overview
-
St. James refining market overview
- Sizing the opportunity
- Alternate sources and outlets: light barrels and export opportunities
-
Transport rates and competitive dynamics
- The competition
- Enbridge
- TC Energy
- Energy Transfer Partners
- Synergies
- Project economic analysis
- Takeaways
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Capline northbound volumes (b/d)
- Patoka supply chain map
- St. James Louisiana Map
- USGC-bound Western Canadian egress routes
- St. James refining market crude slate by API band
- St. James refining market heavy crude consumption source (b/d)
- St. James refining market crude slate change with reversed Capline pipeline (b/d)
- Estimated St. James premium pricing for WCS barrels vs. Houston market ($/bbl)
- Estimated maximum Capline pipeline spot rates ($/bbl)
- Capline volumes, Patoka origin (kb/d)
- Capline volumes by crude quality
- Initial Capital costs vs. project level IRR
What's included
This report contains:
