Supply outages lead to tightening oil fundamentals

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Report summary

Several sources of global supply are at lower than usual levels so far this month and likely to remain so for much of September or even the fourth quarter. We estimate that including the increasing impact of sanctions against Iran, world oil supply is significantly less than in the second quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, this year's trend of oil demand growth continues with some upward revisions in our latest analysis. The losses in Libyan production, which we discussed at end-July, have worsened...

What's included

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    Supply outages lead to tightening oil fundamentals

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Libya: Strikes cause a dramatic fall in the production of key export crudes
  • Iraq: Crude oil production falls
  • Syria: Output already out of the market
  • Global supply outages add up to around five million b/d
  • World oil demand shows moderate growth
  • Implications for oil prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:


  • Chart 1: Libya's 2013 average monthly oil production by blend (‘000 b/d)
  • Map 1: Libyan refineries and export infrastructure
  • Map 2: Assessment of average third quarter 2013 supply losses

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