Insight
The Middle East Conflict: at what price does the oil market rebalance?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) would remove ~10 million b/d of crude and condensate supply from global markets. Unlike 2020's demand-driven shock, this is a supply-side crisis requiring sustained high oil prices to achieve market equilibrium. This Insight covers: • structural supply loss, as the 12 - 14 million b/d transiting through the SoH is partially offset by pipeline routes • the economic impact of sustained higher oil prices • the countries with the greatest vulnerability to the loss of SoH volumes • global oil demand decline from the impact of GDP drop and higher prices • the sustained Brent price required to drive demand down sufficiently to rebalance the market
Table of contents
- No table of contents specified
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
North Field–South Pars: from the world’s largest gas resource to global markets
Unpacking the world's largest gas resource and its global impact
$1,350
Insight
LNG short-term webinar: August 2026
The TTF front-month contract surged +20% to above US$23/mmbtu – its highest level since the start of the Middle East conflict.
$1,050
Insight
Value-in-use iron ore costs Q3 2026
Q3 2026 iron ore value-in-use adjusted costs are up 1.3% compared to last quarter, and margins are below 40% in Q3 2026.
$5,000
