What does the global oil market look like in 2019?
Assuming OPEC continues its policy of production restraint through end-2019, we expect the oil market to tighten in 2019. At 1.0 million b/d, global supply growth will be robust, although nowhere near as strong as the 1.8 million b/d growth in 2018. This sits against a backdrop of 1.1 million b/d growth in global demand. This provides price support, especially in H2 2019 when our forecast shows a tight supply and demand balance. On this basis, we forecast Brent to rise from an average of $52 per barrel in 2018 to $55 per barrel in 2019.