Insight
What does the global oil market look like in 2019?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Assuming OPEC continues its policy of production restraint through end-2019, we expect the oil market to tighten in 2019. At 1.0 million b/d, global supply growth will be robust, although nowhere near as strong as the 1.8 million b/d growth in 2018. This sits against a backdrop of 1.1 million b/d growth in global demand. This provides price support, especially in H2 2019 when our forecast shows a tight supply and demand balance. On this basis, we forecast Brent to rise from an average of $52 per barrel in 2018 to $55 per barrel in 2019.
Table of contents
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Executive Summary
- Global supply: robust despite continued OPEC restraint but growth eases
- US Lower 48: pace of crude growth slows in 2019 due to the higher weight of well declines
- Non-OPEC ex-US: only marginal net growth of 200,000 b/d in 2019
- OPEC: base case assumption of continued restraint gives broadly flat production through 2019
- Global demand to reach 100 million b/d by late 2019 despite slowdown in pace of growth
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