What does the global oil market look like in 2019?
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Report summary
Assuming OPEC continues its policy of production restraint through end-2019, we expect the oil market to tighten in 2019. At 1.0 million b/d, global supply growth will be robust, although nowhere near as strong as the 1.8 million b/d growth in 2018. This sits against a backdrop of 1.1 million b/d growth in global demand. This provides price support, especially in H2 2019 when our forecast shows a tight supply and demand balance. On this basis, we forecast Brent to rise from an average of $52 per barrel in 2018 to $55 per barrel in 2019.
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Executive Summary
- Global supply: robust despite continued OPEC restraint but growth eases
- US Lower 48: pace of crude growth slows in 2019 due to the higher weight of well declines
- Non-OPEC ex-US: only marginal net growth of 200,000 b/d in 2019
- OPEC: base case assumption of continued restraint gives broadly flat production through 2019
- Global demand to reach 100 million b/d by late 2019 despite slowdown in pace of growth
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