Insight

2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance

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04 May 2016

2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance

Report summary

This Insight summarizes our price guidance in advance of the PJM auction with details around supply and demand curves, assumptions and risks. Over the past few years, PJM has seen a rapid transition from coal to natural gas. With a staggering 20 GW of combined cycles targeting the 2018/19 and 2019/20 online dates, we discuss implications on capacity auction results.

Table of contents

  • Looking back – the 2018/2019 Auction Summary (RTO wide)
    • Changes to Demand or the VRR curve
    • Changes to Supply
    • Price Guidance for RTO wide prices
    • Zonal Price Separation
    • COMED
    • EMAAC
    • New CC capacity bids
    • Technology
    • Gas Pipeline Delays
    • Access to firm pipe
    • AEP/First Energy PPAs
    • VRR curve changes and impact on sentiment and bidding strategies
    • Hatfields Ferry FE (Downside)
    • Nuclear Retirements (Upside)
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Figure 1: Wood Mackenzie modelled 2018/19 BRA Auction (RTO wide): Price Outcomes
  • Figure 2: Wood Mackenzie modelled 2018/19 BRA Auction (RTO wide): Cleared and Uncleared Resources
  • Figure 3: Summary of Changes to the Demand (VRR) Curve
  • Figure 4: New Combined Cycle plants will be a big factor in the price (ICAP GW)
  • Figure 5: Summary of Changes in Supply Curves
  • Figure 6: Price Guidance for 2019/2020
  • Table 1: Summary of Cleared Resources
  • Figure 7: COMED Price Guidance for 2019/2020

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance

    PDF 1.15 MB

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