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11 Pages

2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance


2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance

Report summary

This Insight summarizes our price guidance in advance of the PJM auction with details around supply and demand curves, assumptions and risks. Over the past few years, PJM has seen a rapid transition from coal to natural gas. With a staggering 20 GW of combined cycles targeting the 2018/19 and 2019/20 online dates, we discuss implications on capacity auction results.


What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • 2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance PDF - 1.15 MB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 7 Figures

Description

This Power Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues within the power industry, this report gives you an expert opinion and analysis to help inform your decision making.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts provide a strong reference, enabling a quick and concise description about the relationship between this event and its implications.

Underpinned by our extensive gas, coal and oil markets research, Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts provide a reliable foundation for investments and corporate planning. We help you understand key regulatory and economic drivers, and emerging industry tends in the power industry.

  • Looking back – the 2018/2019 Auction Summary (RTO wide)
  • Wood Mackenzie 2019/20 BRA Auction (RTO wide) Forecast
    • Changes to Demand or the VRR curve
    • Changes to Supply
    • Price Guidance for RTO wide prices
    • Zonal Price Separation
    • COMED
    • EMAAC
  • Risk
    • New CC capacity bids
    • Technology
    • Gas Pipeline Delays
    • Access to firm pipe
    • AEP/First Energy PPAs
    • VRR curve changes and impact on sentiment and bidding strategies
    • Hatfields Ferry FE (Downside)
    • Nuclear Retirements (Upside)
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Looking back – the 2018/2019 Auction Summary (RTO wide)
    • Figure 1: Wood Mackenzie modelled 2018/19 BRA Auction (RTO wide): Price Outcomes
    • Figure 2: Wood Mackenzie modelled 2018/19 BRA Auction (RTO wide): Cleared and Uncleared Resources
  • Wood Mackenzie 2019/20 BRA Auction (RTO wide) Forecast
    • Figure 3: Summary of Changes to the Demand (VRR) Curve
    • Figure 4: New Combined Cycle plants will be a big factor in the price (ICAP GW)
    • Figure 5: Summary of Changes in Supply Curves
    • Figure 6: Price Guidance for 2019/2020
    • Table 1: Summary of Cleared Resources
    • Figure 7: COMED Price Guidance for 2019/2020
  • Risk
  • Conclusion
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