Insight
2019/2020 PJM Capacity Auction: Week-ahead Detailed Price Guidance
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This Insight summarizes our price guidance in advance of the PJM auction with details around supply and demand curves, assumptions and risks. Over the past few years, PJM has seen a rapid transition from coal to natural gas. With a staggering 20 GW of combined cycles targeting the 2018/19 and 2019/20 online dates, we discuss implications on capacity auction results.
Table of contents
- Looking back – the 2018/2019 Auction Summary (RTO wide)
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Wood Mackenzie 2019/20 BRA Auction (RTO wide) Forecast
- Changes to Demand or the VRR curve
- Changes to Supply
- Price Guidance for RTO wide prices
- Zonal Price Separation
- COMED
- EMAAC
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Risk
- New CC capacity bids
- Technology
- Gas Pipeline Delays
- Access to firm pipe
- AEP/First Energy PPAs
- VRR curve changes and impact on sentiment and bidding strategies
- Hatfields Ferry FE (Downside)
- Nuclear Retirements (Upside)
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Figure 1: Wood Mackenzie modelled 2018/19 BRA Auction (RTO wide): Price OutcomesFigure 2: Wood Mackenzie modelled 2018/19 BRA Auction (RTO wide): Cleared and Uncleared ResourcesFigure 3: Summary of Changes to the Demand (VRR) Curve
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Figure 4: New Combined Cycle plants will be a big factor in the price (ICAP GW)Figure 5: Summary of Changes in Supply CurvesFigure 6: Price Guidance for 2019/2020Table 1: Summary of Cleared ResourcesFigure 7: COMED Price Guidance for 2019/2020
What's included
This report contains:
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