Commodity market report
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8 Pages

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2016

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2016

Report summary

For the month of December, wind output was particularly stronger than in 2015. While wind generation was stronger, so was overall demand.  While this pop in demand was not unexpected, it helped steady gas demand balances for the month in the face of rising  gas prices and increased wind output. While stronger trends in both wind and demand continued into the first half of January, February could again bring a stronger pop to demand, as weather support was significantly below normal in 2016.

What's included?

This report includes 5 file(s)

  • ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2016 PDF - 363.08 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • NAPRS Load Forecast 12 31 2016.xls XLS - 5.36 MB
  • NAPRS Short Term Fundamentals 12 31 2016.xls XLS - 1.15 MB
  • NAPRS Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real 12 31 2016.xls XLS - 5.99 MB
  • NAPRS Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal 12 31 2016.xls XLS - 2.16 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Could a stronger rig response send prices back below $3 by late 2017?
    • Risk remains of coal supply shortage in 2017
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Demand
    • Supply
    • Generation
    • Demand
    • Generation and prices
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to November 2016 STO)
    • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to November 2016 STO)
    • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to November 2016 STO)
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to November 2016 STO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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