ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2016 Report

Commodity Market Report 13 January 2017

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Report summary

For the month of December, wind output was particularly stronger than in 2015. While wind generation was stronger, so was overall demand. While this pop in demand was not unexpected, it helped steady gas demand balances for the month in the face of rising gas prices and increased wind output. While stronger trends in both wind and demand continued into the first half of January, February could again bring a stronger pop to demand, as weather support was significantly below normal in 2016.

Executive summary
Fundamentals
- Could a stronger rig response send prices back below $3 by late 2017?
- Risk remains of coal supply shortage in 2017
Generation balances and prices
- Demand
- Supply
- Generation
- Demand
- Generation and prices
Scenario Overview

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to November 2016 STO)
Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to November 2016 STO)
Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to November 2016 STO)
Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to November 2016 STO)