Name: No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 74045
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Commodity Market Report 15 September 2017

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                <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast.  In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.  </div>
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<h2>Why buy this report?</h2>
<p>Although a year of moderate weather kept energy prices stable, the solar eclipse and intense Atlantic hurricane season were a disruptive force to more than just the communities they affected. This short-term power forecast can help you:</p>
<ul>
<li>Identify significant trends across regional power markets</li>
<li>Understand the immediate and near-term effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on our power demand outlook</li>
<li>Learn why Henry Hub prices are trending low, and why we expect a rally</li>
<li>See where rising wind power over the last year has been built out across the US</li>
</ul>
<p>Our growing presence as power and renewables experts is supported by more than 40 years in the energy analysis space, and by dedicated power analysts located in niche markets throughout the world.</p></div>
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<h2>This short-term outlook for power and renewables includes:</h2>
<ul>
<li>Base cases outlooks for fuel price, load forecast, price and other fundamentals</li>
<li>Near-term impacts of recent Atlantic Hurricanes Harvey and Irma</li>
<li>North American power supply, demand, generation balances and price outlook</li>
</ul></div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive summary
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#fa56e360-d230-4be1-a844-22c70ad5f794" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="fa56e360-d230-4be1-a844-22c70ad5f794" aria-expanded="false">
            Fundamentals
        </a>
        <ul id="fa56e360-d230-4be1-a844-22c70ad5f794" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        2018: all about supply
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#76498628-09e0-4bca-84c6-0be5d21d01ff" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="76498628-09e0-4bca-84c6-0be5d21d01ff" aria-expanded="false">
            Generation balances and prices
        </a>
        <ul id="76498628-09e0-4bca-84c6-0be5d21d01ff" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
            <ul id="58453203-9a2f-4fb7-8c33-90203ca93090" class="push-half--left">
                    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Demand
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Supply
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        East and ERCOT
            <ul id="11441d0e-5502-47aa-874f-b00ba4db42cb" class="push-half--left">
                    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Generation
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Prices and heat rates
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        WECC
            <ul id="98c4a16d-db76-4552-92d2-1f6a015793c5" class="push-half--left">
                    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Supply and demand
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Prices and generation
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#5ce6c473-13c8-4ec8-a53f-21c3afede9c2" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="5ce6c473-13c8-4ec8-a53f-21c3afede9c2" aria-expanded="false">
            Scenario Overview
        </a>
        <ul id="5ce6c473-13c8-4ec8-a53f-21c3afede9c2" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

</ul>

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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Scenario Overview: Table 1</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)</li>
    </ul>

</div>
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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx</p>
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    <span>XLSX</span>
    <span>123.66 KB</span>
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<p class="font-regular" >201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx</p>
<p class="uppercase delta">
    <span>XLSX</span>
    <span>123.83 KB</span>
</p>
</li><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >201708 STO Base Case Load Forecast WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx</p>
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    <span>XLSX</span>
    <span>2.58 MB</span>
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<p class="font-regular" >201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx</p>
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<p class="font-regular" >201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx</p>
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    <span>XLSX</span>
    <span>2.81 MB</span>
</p>
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<p class="font-regular" >201708 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx</p>
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    <span>522.75 KB</span>
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<p class="font-regular" >No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017</p>
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<p class="gamma store_landing__body off-black font-regular push-half--bottom">Despite the polar vortex at the end of January, Eastern power markets did not show much lift in February.</p>

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<p class="gamma store_landing__body off-black font-regular push-half--bottom">Punctuating volatile wind output in May, there was nearly no wind generation anywhere east of the Rockies at times on May 4th.</p>

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<p class="gamma store_landing__body off-black font-regular push-half--bottom">Wind curtailment has been significant as wind output was strong across ERCOT, SPP and MISO.</p>

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