No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017 Report

Commodity Market Report 15 September 2017

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Report summary

Despite bullish fundamentals for natural gas, moderate weather this year has kept prices in check, revising prices down through the end of the year, with additional pressures in 2018 and 2019. This combined with other fundamentals and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma keep pressure on power prices through much of the forecast. In terms of supply, we continue to add more wind in the Midcontinent region as developers focus where costs are the lowest and PTC revenues highest.

Why buy this report?

Although a year of moderate weather kept energy prices stable, the solar eclipse and intense Atlantic hurricane season were a disruptive force to more than just the communities they affected. This short-term power forecast can help you:

Identify significant trends across regional power markets
Understand the immediate and near-term effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on our power demand outlook
Learn why Henry Hub prices are trending low, and why we expect a rally
See where rising wind power over the last year has been built out across the US

Our growing presence as power and renewables experts is supported by more than 40 years in the energy analysis space, and by dedicated power analysts located in niche markets throughout the world.

This short-term outlook for power and renewables includes:

Base cases outlooks for fuel price, load forecast, price and other fundamentals
Near-term impacts of recent Atlantic Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
North American power supply, demand, generation balances and price outlook

Executive summary
Fundamentals
- 2018: all about supply
- 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
Generation balances and prices
- Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impact near term demand forecast
  - Demand
  - Supply
- East and ERCOT
  - Generation
  - Prices and heat rates
- WECC
  - Supply and demand
  - Prices and generation
Scenario Overview
- Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Scenario Overview: Table 1
Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)
Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2017 STO)
Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2017 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 123.66 KB
201708 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 123.83 KB
201708 STO Base Case Load Forecast WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 2.58 MB

201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 1.09 MB
201708 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 2.81 MB
201708 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals WECC 8 31 2017.xlsx

XLSX 522.75 KB
No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

PDF 812.71 KB
No help from the weather: WECC power and renewables short term outlook August 2017

ZIP 7.22 MB