The fog of volatility: will proper resource planning be increasingly challenged in the current ERCOT energy only market?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Key takeaways
- Intermittent nature of increasing generation supply in ERCOT witnessed this summer
- ERCOT gas projects being cancelled and no new ones showing up -- even with reserve margins declining and high forward pricing
- Return to strong demand growth puts focus back on ERCOT reserve targets
- Current scarcity construct has yet to be fully tested
- Will energy only prices rise quickly enough incentivize proper investment decisions in the mid-term?
- Rising scarcity will need to incentive new gas capacity but increasing wind and solar penetration poses a challenge
- Price relationship to needed investment revenue
- System may have been closer to reliability events this July than currently thought
- 2018 summer wind and weather patterns could be a harbinger of things to come
- Upside to renewables provides some support in the immediate near term
- Additional demand response does not appear to be a significant short term solution
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Figure 1: 7-day rolling average load in ERCOT (GW)
- Figure 2: Historical and forecast ERCOT reserve margins
- Figure 3: Historical and projected ERCOT day ahead prices
- Figure 4: June through August 2018 real time ORDC price adders
- Figure 5: Historical and projected pricing contributions to NGCC CONE
- Figure 6: ERCOT net summer peak demand (MW)
- Figure 7: 2018 Average daily temperature readings and wind availability
What's included
This report contains: