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The Middle East conflict introduces execution risk and supply chain setbacks for global solar
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Report summary
The escalating Middle East conflict is disrupting the global solar value chain at multiple levels, affecting ~110 GW of regional projects while simultaneously delaying the region's emergence as a strategic manufacturing hub by 2-3 years. Beyond the Middle East, the disruption is exposing critical upstream vulnerabilities in the U.S. supply chain, where potential loss of 20-25% of external cell supply could derail IRA-driven manufacturing goals, while also transmitting cost pressure globally through rising logistics expenses. Rather than accelerating supply chain diversification, the conflict is reinforcing China's dominance and pushing back the timeline for meaningful alternatives across modules, cells, and critical components.
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