Market Report

US distributed energy resource (DER) outlook 2024

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Wood Mackenzie's annual US DER outlook provides a comprehensive analysis of DER deployment and market size across a five-year lookback and five-year forecast period. Accompanying capacity and capex forecasts for each resource type are the key opportunities, risks and policies that will determine its growth. In addition to individual coverage, market sizes are compared to determine DER market share and are compared collectively against bulk generation deployments over the same decade-long period. Resource types covered in the report include: EV chargers, distributed storage, distributed solar, distributed fuel-based generation, heat pumps, smart thermostats, and building automation systems.

Table of contents

  • Introduction and key findings (page 6)
  • Overview of US DER potential (page 10)
  • Distributed solar (page 18)
  • Smart thermostats (page 25)
  • Residential heat pumps (page 31)
  • Commercial building automation systems (page 37)
  • EV chargers (page 43)
  • Distributed battery storage (page 48)
  • Distributed fuel-based generation (page 55)
  • Methodology (page 61)

Tables and charts

  • Historic growth rate, DER Capacity, and capex by resource type (2019-2023)
  • Forecasted growth rate, DER Capacity, and capex by resource type (2024-2028)
  • Cumulative DER Capacity additions (2019-2028)
  • Cumulative bulk capacity additions (2019-2028)
  • Annual market share by technology
  • Top 10 states by technology
  • Annual DER Capacity additions by technology and customer segment (residential, non-residential)
  • Annual capital expenditure by technology and customer segment (residential, non-residential) 
  • The smart thermostat flexible capacity funnel
  • Thermostat prices over time
  • US residential natural gas furnace and heat pump sales
  • US residential heating system shares
  • 2028 BAS penetration by building type
  • Residential and non-residential installed battery energy capacity and duration

Table of contents

  • No table of contents specified

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    US DER outlook 2024_PR.pdf

    PDF 1.40 MB

  • Document

    US DER outlook 2024_Data.xlsx

    XLSX 278.04 KB