US utility-scale solar market update: Q1 2026

The passage of the OBBBA has introduced significant uncertainty into the US utility‑scale solar market, reshaping project economics, development timelines, and investment risk. This research is critical now because it clarifies how developers and investors are responding - particularly through large‑scale safe harboring - and what those actions mean for capacity additions over the next decade. The report updates Wood Mackenzie’s 10‑year utility‑scale solar outlook and explains the key drivers behind our base, low, and high scenarios, including permitting constraints, safe‑harbored capacity assumptions, and alternative power demand trajectories that shape long‑term capacity additions. Clients should use this analysis to evaluate pipeline risk, understand scenario sensitivities, and guide strategic planning amid evolving policy, demand growth, and regulatory conditions.