Commodity Market Report

Vietnam power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019

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12 June 2019

Vietnam power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

Key report themes: 1) Vietnam wholesale electricity market finally starts operation. 2) Southern Vietnam sees an increase in proposals to build LNG regas terminals. 3) Second solar feed-in tariffs draft remains proposed tariffs to vary by location, supports floating solar growth and removes energy storage option. 4) MOIT released the first draft on rooftop solar power models to encourage the development of rooftop solar power projects.

Table of contents

  • Proposed LNG regas terminals in the south on the rise
  • MOIT introduces rooftop solar power models
  • Gas and LNG report
  • Market background
    • Key offices
    • Policy drivers
    • Competition
    • Fuel mix and renewables
    • Pricing
  • Key players
    • COP21 INDC target
    • Wholesale market operations
  • Transmission
  • Distribution and retail
    • Available capacity and reserve margin
    • Urgent power projects update
    • Forecast new grid capacity by region
    • North Vietnam
    • Central Vietnam
    • South Vietnam
    • Laos and Cambodia
    • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
  • Annual generation forecast
  • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Import and intra-regional flows
  • Coal and gas demand
    • Power infrastructure: current
    • Power infrastructure: planned and possible
    • Power infrastructure maps
  • Breakeven cost by technology
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
  • Short-run marginal cost analysis
  • End-user tariffs
  • Breakeven cost forecast
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Seasonality and gas demand swing

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

  • Key changes to analysis since H2 2018 publication
  • GDP forecast: Vietnam
  • Vietnam's energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Feed-in-tariffs (2017, USc/kWh)
  • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Capacity: renewables by fuel
  • Generation: renewables by fuel
  • Vietnam power market value chain
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
  • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Power transmission capacity across regions
  • Coal demand in power (bbtud)
  • Gas demand in power (bbtud)
  • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Vietnam 2020 merit order
  • Vietnam 2030 merit order
  • Vietnam 2040 merit order
  • EVN-regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
  • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
  • Average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
  • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Major energy legislation
  • COP21 INDC target
  • Emissions in the power sector
  • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Reserve margin by region
  • Available capacity by region
  • Power sales growth, GDP growth and electricity intensity
  • Power sales by region
  • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
  • Power transmission utilisation across regions
  • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build
  • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
  • Annual shape: rainfall, hydro and power demand
  • Annual shape of hydro and gas
  • Projected hydro shape
  • Projected gas shape

What's included

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