Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015

Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015

Report summary

With the rapid pace of growth, the power supply and demand gap will continue to grow in South Vietnam despite the completion of several coal projects since 2014. This is leading to blackouts. With hydro contributing to more than 40% of the capacity mix in Vietnam, the repercussions of power shortages in South Vietnam will be even more severe during dry hydro years. At the current pace of project development, supply only can catch up with demand by 2018 at the earliest.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015 PDF - 731.39 KB 30 Pages, 4 Tables, 35 Figures
  • Vietnam Power Data.xls XLS - 934.28 KB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Urgent power projects
    • More IPP investment will be required
    • Rare pollution protest
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy Policy
      • Key Offices
      • Policy Drivers
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
    • Key players
    • Power Market Regulation
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and Retail
  • Supply
    • Capacity & reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Forecast New Grid Capacity By Region
        • North Vietnam
        • Central Vietnam
        • South Vietnam
        • Laos and Cambodia
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
    • Sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
  • Infrastructure
    • Vietnam Power Transmission Infrastructure
      • Power Infrastructure - Current
      • Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
      • Power Infrastructure Maps
  • Demand
    • Power demand
      • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant Utilisation (Capacity Factor)
    • Transmission Utilisation Across Regions
      • Import and intra-regional flows
    • Captive power
      • Captive Power Demand by Region
  • Prices
    • End-User Tariffs
    • Average Annual System Short-run Cost
    • Breakeven Cost Forecast
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
      • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

In this report there are 39 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Vietnam
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Major Energy Legislation
    • Vietnam’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Vietnam power market value chain
  • Supply
    • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
    • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build
    • Screening curve with gas at US$8.98/mmbtu
    • Screening curve with gas at US$10.08/mmbtu
    • Vietnam 2015 merit order
    • Vietnam 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
    • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
    • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
    • Power sales by region
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Power transmission capacity across regions
    • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
    • Power transmission utilisation across regions
    • Vietnam captive power sales by region
  • Prices
    • EVN regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
    • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
    • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
    • Annual Shape - Rainfall, hydro and power demand
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
    • Projected Hydro Shape
    • Projected Gas Shape
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