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Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015

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30 July 2015

Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015

Report summary

With the rapid pace of growth, the power supply and demand gap will continue to grow in South Vietnam despite the completion of several coal projects since 2014. This is leading to blackouts. With hydro contributing to more than 40% of the capacity mix in Vietnam, the repercussions of power shortages in South Vietnam will be even more severe during dry hydro years. At the current pace of project development, supply only can catch up with demand by 2018 at the earliest.

Table of contents

    • Urgent power projects
    • More IPP investment will be required
    • Rare pollution protest
  • Economic outlook
    • Energy Policy
      • Key Offices
      • Policy Drivers
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
    • Key players
    • Power Market Regulation
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and Retail
    • Capacity & reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Forecast New Grid Capacity By Region
        • North Vietnam
        • Central Vietnam
        • South Vietnam
        • Laos and Cambodia
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
    • Sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
    • Vietnam Power Transmission Infrastructure
      • Power Infrastructure - Current
      • Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
      • Power Infrastructure Maps
    • Power demand
      • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant Utilisation (Capacity Factor)
    • Transmission Utilisation Across Regions
      • Import and intra-regional flows
    • Captive power
      • Captive Power Demand by Region
    • End-User Tariffs
    • Average Annual System Short-run Cost
    • Breakeven Cost Forecast
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
      • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

  • GDP forecast - Vietnam
  • Economic Indicators
  • Vietnam’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build
  • Screening curve with gas at US$8.98/mmbtu
  • Screening curve with gas at US$10.08/mmbtu
  • Vietnam 2015 merit order
  • Vietnam 2025 merit order
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
  • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Power transmission capacity across regions
  • EVN regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
  • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
  • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
  • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Annual Shape - Rainfall, hydro and power demand
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
  • Major Energy Legislation
  • Vietnam power market value chain
  • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
  • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
  • Power sales by region
  • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
  • Power transmission utilisation across regions
  • Vietnam captive power sales by region
  • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
  • Projected Hydro Shape
  • Projected Gas Shape
  • Reserve margin by region
  • Available capacity by region

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Vietnam Power Data.xls

    XLS 934.28 KB

  • Document

    Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015

    PDF 731.39 KB

  • Document

    Vietnam power markets long-term outlook 2015

    ZIP 975.38 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 77.55 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 96.98 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 250.67 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 122.08 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 190.27 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 159.59 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 104.49 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 130.31 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 110.21 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 104.12 KB