Commodity market report
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8 Pages

WECC power markets short-term outlook January 2016


WECC power markets short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

Power demand in the current outlook remains steady; however, downside forces are accumulating.  Declines in power prices are partially being offset by increasing implied market heat rates. However, recent and forthcoming capacity additions in ERCOT continue to compress prices. In other markets, nuclear retirements will have a significant impact on Northeast operations.  In the WECC, the 2016 Pacific Northwest hydro run is expected to be about 6 percent lower than previously forecasted.  

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • WECC power markets short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 368.00 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • NAPS STO STV WECC 1 30 2016.xls XLS - 26.61 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Natural gas prices slightly stronger for balance of the winter season
      • Coal supply will reinforce any weather driven downturn in the outlook
      • Oil surplus to help tighten gas markets
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Eastern power prices continue to remain under pressure from both supply and demand risks
      • Power demand remains a downside risk as industrial production lags
      • Renewable additions highlight changes in capacity mix
    • Few positives, although regional implied market heat rates suggest some support for gas-fired generators
      • Nuclear uncertainty highlights the Northeast
    • WECC demonstrates correlation of power and natural gas markets
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to December 2015 LTO)
    • Generation balances and prices: Image 2
    • Generation balances and prices: Image 3
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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