Will China’s export tax rebate phaseout trigger solar and battery price earthquake?

China has announced a major change to its export tax rebate policy for battery and solar PV products, with phased reductions beginning in April 2026. Under an announcement made in January 2026 by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, VAT export rebates for battery products will be reduced and ultimately eliminated, while rebates for PV products will be abolished entirely. This policy shift marks a strategic shift in how China will manage its rapidly expanding renewable energy export sector and its position in the global clean energy value chain. In this insight, we examine the policy’s impact on the country’s solar and energy storage product exports and pricing dynamics, and how Chinese manufacturers will respond to them.