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Could RFS exemptions trigger a RIN price collapse?
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Report summary
Under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), for non-exported transport fuels (diesel and gasoline), US refiners are required to blend in renewable fuels or purchase Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) from blenders/other. These RINs are ultimately used to prove a refinery's RFS compliance. In response to high profile refinery complaints over the last year, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has granted RFS waivers to a number of "small refineries," relieving these facilities from their obligation to purchase RINs. What impact will these exemptions have on RIN pricing? How many exemptions will it take to structurally effect the price of RINs? If the EPA exempts a significant amount of small refineries, could this precipitate a RIN price collapse?
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