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6 Pages

Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?


Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?

Report summary

The removal of sanctions on Iran increases the supply of medium crudes, which could increase the Urals – Brent differential so benefiting European refiners.  A historical review suggests the volumes of incremental Iranian exports are insufficient to widen the Urals – Brent differential, particularly when the optimal export market remains Asia.  European refiners could benefit if Iran decides that diverting existing volumes to Europe to re-establish relations is a strategic imperative.   

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Description

This Refining and Oil Products Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues of this topic, this report gives you an alternative point of view to help inform your decision making.

With over 20 years of experience in the refining industry, Wood Mackenzie is a trusted global leader with a reputation for producing consistently reliable information.

Our senior analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They use detailed research data to forecast, benchmark and recognise trends that will help both new and existing participants identify opportunities and avoid risks.

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Historical Urals - Brent differential
  • Iranian Crude Export Growth
  • Commercial optimisation: Asia v Europe
  • Outlook for 2016
  • Key risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Historical Urals - Brent differential
    • Figure 1: Urals – Brent historical annual price differential (percentage of Brent price)
    • Figure 2: Urals – Brent differential plus EU crude imports from FSU + Iran
  • Iranian Crude Export Growth
  • Commercial optimisation: Asia v Europe
    • Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?: Image 3
    • Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?: Image 4
  • Outlook for 2016
  • Key risks and uncertainties
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