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Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?

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Report summary

The removal of sanctions on Iran increases the supply of medium crudes which could increase the Urals Brent differential so benefiting European refiners. A historical review suggests the volumes of incremental Iranian exports are insufficient to widen the Urals Brent differential particularly when the optimal export market remains Asia. European refiners could benefit if Iran decides that diverting existing volumes to Europe to re establish relations is a strategic imperative.

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    Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?

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This report includes 4 images and tables including:

Images

  • Figure 1: Urals – Brent historical annual price differential (percentage of Brent price)
  • Figure 2: Urals – Brent differential plus EU crude imports from FSU + Iran
  • Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?: Image 3
  • Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?: Image 4

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