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Double whammy for China’s refining – 2025 is a tipping point
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Report summary
In November 2024, the Chinese government revised its VAT rebate policy on refined product exports. Additionally, in January, it also changed consumption tax refund rules for teapot refiners and increased duty on fuel oil. This is squeezing margins for teapot refiners. At the same time, market dynamics are shifting, with demand slowing for transport fuels. Tightening sanctions on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude also pose risks for teapot refiners.
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