Insight
Downstream oil in brief: Germany's climate change dilemma, what happens if the Rhine dries up?
Report summary
Following our previous insight covering the Rhine water level crisis at end 2018, this month we revisit the Rhine following a period of low water in July. In this article we look both at the short-term disruption to freight rates and inland fuel prices, as well as exploring the longer-term implications for those reliant on the Rhine as a transport route. We also looks at how European refining and marketing margins have been performing over the past month.
Table of contents
- Europe's most important river: the role of the Rhine in oil product trade flows
- Why Rhine water levels matter: the impact on freight rates and inland fuel prices
- Lower for longer: what are the alternative transport options if the Rhine becomes structurally shallower?
- Potential winners and losers: who should be most concerned?
- In conclusion
-
Margins
- Refining margins:
- Retail margins: pump prices lag a wholesale price collapse, as margins surge
- Germany and Switzerland: pump prices set to rise as barge loading restrictions imposed
- Client feedback
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- The Rhine river and Germany's hinterland refining system
- A critical relationship: Rhine water levels and freight rates
- Seasonal trends in freight rates vs water levels
- Rhine water levels long term range and forecast
- NWE refining margins
- Med refining margins
- MED gasoline/gasoil crack spreads
- NWE gasoline/gasoil crack spreads
- Average weighted gross retail margins
- Germany: gasoline gross retail fuel margin
- Switzerland: gasoline gross retail fuel margin
- Germany: diesel gross retail fuel margin
- Switzerland: diesel gross retail fuel margin
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
BP and Shell: Strategy for disorderly energy transition
We reflect on BP and Shell's evolving transition strategies in a broader context
$1,350
Insight
2023 guidance: upstream companies' capital budgets and production targets
Rolling company guidance tracker with 2023 investment plans and volume targets. Now includes multi-segment budgets for the largest E&Ps.
$1,350
Commodity Market Report
Switzerland downstream oil long-term outlook
Greater dependence on imports to satisfy domestic oil demand leaves Switzerland more exposed to disruption when Rhine water levels are low.
$4,750
