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18 Pages

Due for an oil change: South Africa's downstream oil sector


Due for an oil change: South Africa's downstream oil sector

Report summary

South Africa, the largest economy on the African continent, has a growing demand for oil that has outgrown its capacity to adequately supply its own needs. As the fuel deficit grows, there will be more reliance on imports in order to satisfy domestic demand - a trend which is increasingly detrimental to national fuel supply security. Oil demand growth is supporting an expanding network of retail service stations, mostly under the brands of the oil majors, all of which also have a refining...

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  • Due for an oil change: South Africa's downstream oil sector PDF - 855.45 KB 18 Pages, 1 Tables, 20 Figures

Description

This Refining and Oil Products Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues of this topic, this report gives you an alternative point of view to help inform your decision making.

With over 20 years of experience in the refining industry, Wood Mackenzie is a trusted global leader with a reputation for producing consistently reliable information.

Our senior analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They use detailed research data to forecast, benchmark and recognise trends that will help both new and existing participants identify opportunities and avoid risks.

  • A highly regulated oil market in a dangerously deficit position
  • Economic development will support rising vehicle ownership, increasing fuel demand
  • An ageing domestic refining portfolio that is unable to satisfy a large energy appetite
  • A highly regulated oil market, with new biofuel and stockholding laws imminent
    • Fuel quality
    • Strategic stocks
  • A large and growing oil product deficit, highly exposed to global external shocks
  • An efficient, growing retail network, consisting largely of majors' brands
  • A regulated, complex fuel pricing structure, highly dependent on external market forces
  • Fuel margins are fixed, increasing emphasis on non-fuel revenue to add value
    • Retail margins
  • Companies: refinery upgrades, storage expansion, more non-fuel partnerships expected
  • Outlook

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • A highly regulated oil market in a dangerously deficit position
  • Economic development will support rising vehicle ownership, increasing fuel demand
    • GDP and GDP per capita
    • Car ownership
    • Total road transport fuel demand
    • Retail fuel volumes
  • An ageing domestic refining portfolio that is unable to satisfy a large energy appetite
    • Due for an oil change: South Africa's downstream oil sector: Image 6
    • Crude oil refineries
  • A highly regulated oil market, with new biofuel and stockholding laws imminent
  • A large and growing oil product deficit, highly exposed to global external shocks
    • Petrol trade balance
    • Gasoil/diesel trade balance
  • An efficient, growing retail network, consisting largely of majors' brands
    • Service stations and average throughputs
    • 2012 service station brands
    • 2012 retail market shares
    • 2012 market effectiveness ratio
  • A regulated, complex fuel pricing structure, highly dependent on external market forces
    • Fuel price structure - July 2013
    • Historic fuel prices
    • Petrol Price versus Med/Singapore Gasoline Quotes
    • Petrol Price versus US Dollar / Rand Exchange Rate
  • Fuel margins are fixed, increasing emphasis on non-fuel revenue to add value
    • Typical retail net margin break-down
  • Companies: refinery upgrades, storage expansion, more non-fuel partnerships expected
    • Refining and retailing capacity positions
    • Fuel brands and non-fuel partners
    • Due for an oil change: South Africa's downstream oil sector: Image 20
  • Outlook
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