Global product markets weekly: crude price decline relieves refiners amid notably weak gasoline market

The Dated Brent crude price weakened again in the week commencing 22nd October, with the weekly average price close to US$78.50/bbl. Prices have fallen by $7/bbl in the last four weeks as Saudi Arabian production numbers reached multiyear highs and the Kingdom’s Oil Minister belayed risks of supply shortfalls as US Iranian sanctions take full effect. While demand has been relatively strong, continued trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies pose a downside risk to our forecast. However, we do not expect the steep decline in prices to continue, our forecast for Dated Brent in November is $78/bbl and December is forecast to average $79/bbl.