Global products market weekly: Crude rises on Middle East fears as refining margins stabilize

North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average rose by US$2.72/bbl, in the week ended 23 October, as tensions in the Middle East continued to rise. The Israel-Hamas conflict has made headlines for much of the weak, stoking fears of an escalation that could impact global crude supply if there is a regional conflagration. While limited structural effects have been observed to this point, market sentiment continues to price in higher risk, leading to a rise in crude prices. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin dropped by US$0.76/bbl to US$4.05/bbl this week, as light product cracks continued to tick down. Weakness in LPG, naphtha, and gasoline continue to lead margins lower, as distillate cracks have remained high. Weekly margins were at similar levels to the five-year historical average for the same week (excluding 2022).