Global products market weekly: Refining margins recover as crude prices fall

In the early part of the week, the oil market extended its strength from the previous week, supported by the Chinese government's announcement of monetary measures to stimulate the economy and rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. However, crude prices dropped sharply on Thursday by US$2.7/bbl amid reports that Saudi Arabia is prepared to abandon its $100/bbl price target and increase production to reclaim market share. Additionally, growing exports from Libya put further pressure on prices. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average fell by US$1.28/bbl, in the week ended 27th September. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margins increased by US$0.74/bbl to US$4.04/bbl after declining consecutively for the last two weeks, owing to decline in outright crude prices and strength in diesel cracks across regions. Weekly margins were at US$4.17/bbl lower the five-year historical average for the same week (excluding 2022).