India’s rising oil demand: a wake-up call for domestic refiners

We forecast India to be the largest oil demand growth centre by 2035, surpassing China’s demand growth by 2024. A number of refining projects – about 4.6 million b/d capacity – are planned by Indian refiners. Will this be enough or will it lead to overcapacity? Technological, economic and regulatory factors are evolving, and can have implications for oil demand. We present demand and supply scenarios – what can lead to over- or undercapacity? This analysis will enable more informed decision-making and planning for new refining capacity additions by domestic private and public sector refiners.