Insight
Long-term impacts of Russian refinery outages
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Report summary
Our short-term monitoring shows Russian refinery outages increased sharply in H1 2026 following sustained Ukrainian drone attacks. CDU outages reached 2.7 million b/d in July 2026, prompting us to revise our short-term outage forecast from 1.0 million b/d to 2.0 million b/d. This insight assesses the longer-term implications of sustained refinery disruptions using a 2029 basis versus our base case H1 2026 Strategic Planning Outlook. This insight explores the following questions: What has been the impact of recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries? What are the key trade flows for Russian refined product exports in 2026? How does the global market rebalance under scenarios of 2.2 million b/d and 3.0 million b/d of Russian CDU outages? What is the impact of sustained Russian refinery outages on global diesel and fuel oil cracks?
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