Oil products price forecast mid-month update September 2022

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for September 2022 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 1 September. For this mid-month update, we have revised our monthly Brent price forecast to align with our Macro Oils Service short-term September outlook. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin rose in the first two weeks of September, as global middle distillate balances remained tight with low stock levels in key pricing hubs ahead of the seasonal maintenance period. The global margin increase was in line with our prior monthly forecast. We expect the global margin to fall in October given the recent weakness in transportation fuel demand and the announcement of a further 1.5 million tonnes of product export quotas out of China. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on 3 October 2022.