Insight
The implications of the EU ban on Russian distillate exports
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Report summary
The EU embargo which took effect in December 2022 for crude oil will include refined products from February 2023. Crude trade flows have already reshuffled with a similar impact expected on refined products next year. In this insight we analyse our base case forecast which reduces Russian crude runs in 2023, dropping distillate exports to just 700 kb/d. Of this distillate there presents a 400 kb/d downside risk if these exports do not clear to new markets. This insight considers our boundary condition scenario in which these Russia origin distillate exports do not clear and the implications of this. This insight summarises our latest view on the impact of the EU embargo, including: • Current Russian distillate exports • Analysis of our base case forecasted crude runs and export position • What happens if the EU ban proves difficult for Russia to overcome? • Implications on Russian supply and the global distillate market • Who can satisfy the distillate market tightness in Europe?
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