Name: US Independent Refiners: Q4 2025 results recap and analysis
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 220341
Price: 900 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 27 February 2026

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Report summary

Q4 earnings for the five US Independent refiners wrapped up last week with HF Sinclair (DINO). Valero (VLO) kicked the season off on 29 January, while Phillips 66 (P66), PBF Energy (PBF) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported in between. HF Sinclair was the last company to release its 10-K report this Friday. Winter weather and seasonal inventory cuts typically weigh on Q4 refining margins, and this cycle was no exception. While the quarter started strong, crack spreads fell sharply in November and December amid significant light-product inventory builds. Margins were down slightly quarter over quarter, but the Q4 2025 still outperformed Q4 2024, as US refiners shrugged off seasonal headwinds with exceptional operational execution — record-high throughput, stellar mechanical availability, and lower operating costs.

Our take
- Q4 and full-year performance
- Margins and profitability
- Capital allocation
- Market outlook
- Product supply-demand balance
- Crude
- Low carbon
- Waiting for policy clarity
- 5 more item(s)...