Insight
Brazil M&A: operator landscape grows
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Petrobras continues to dominate Brazil’s upstream sector. But its divestments have begun to change the operator landscape, building the stage for small to medium-sized E&Ps. Most of the entrants have yet to release details on their redevelopment plans, but we have taken a view on the potential. Upside on our 10 selected deals is significant – US$3 billion of NPV10. Still, investment opportunities won’t come without challenges. We analyzed the most impactful risks, strengths and key support factors.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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The rise of a new E&P class
- Opportunity pipeline: Petrobras’ divestment plan
- Buyer playbook: challenges and strengths
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Case study
- Methodology: quantifying the upside
- Upside potential: beyond our base case valuation
- Support factors: reduced royalties
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Corporate and above-ground risks
- Access to capital: surprisingly well-funded for now
- Capex commitments: quick paybacks despite sizable investments
- Decommissioning: framework remains murky
- Finding a market: reliance on Petrobras
- Environmental regulation: state-by-state approach for onshore
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Sustaining the operator momentum
- Private equity: nothing is everlasting
- The Brazil model: learning from overseas
- Annex: quantifying the upside potential
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Among the 10 assets we selected for this analysis, Albacora and Papa-Terra stand outWe ran upside scenarios for the 10 assets below based on water depth, basin, maturity and sizeRecent upstream asset sales highlighting case studies
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Remaining NPV10 comparison for the selected assets under different Brent scenariosGearing evolution for key E&PsPayback time for selected assets before and after deal considerations
What's included
This report contains:
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