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Chinese oil production: In permanent decline?

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Report summary

China's domestic oil production accounts for 5% of global supply in 2016 making it the seventh largest crude producing country in the world. But that share looks set to shrink considerably over the next decade as the country faces a severe decline in oil production. China's liquids output is forecast to fall from 4.2 million b/d in 2015 to 3.5 million b/d by 2020.What is driving our forecast of falling output is it natural field decline capital cuts or government policy or all of the above? In other words is this a long term trend that would exist even without the price drop or is it just a short term cyclical fluctuation? Understanding this is vital to attaining a clear picture of the long term outlook for China's output.

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • China's liquids production on the decline
  • Capex cuts from the NOCs
  • Implications for the NOCs and China
  • Risks to our forecast

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Images

  • China's domestic liquids production by theme
  • China's domestic liquids production by operator
  • Chinese oil production: In permanent decline?: Image 3
  • The three Chinese NOCs' capital spending on domestic E&P
  • China's liquids supply breakeven cost: producing assets
  • Chinese oil production: In permanent decline?: Image 6
  • China's liquids supply breakeven cost: pre-FID
  • Chinese oil production: In permanent decline?: Image 8

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