Commercialising frontier discoveries: what separates the winners from the others?

Frontier exploration can create transformational value, but only if the right commercial conditions are met. Drawing on 89 offshore fields discovered since 2010, this report shows how the prize is concentrated in a few players and places, with Stabroek and Búzios generating over half the total value. Half of the 140 billion boe discovered is concentrated in the 10 largest fields. Discoveries exceeding 400 million boe are twice as likely to become commercial. More than half of the discoveries remain sub-commercial, three-quarters of them gas which can lack infrastructure, markets, and suitable fiscal terms. Time to FID drives full-cycle performance. Slow projects lose most of their time before FID; once committed, projects follow a more consistent path with half of all developments delivering production in 3 to 4.5 years.