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ConocoPhillips corporate report

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25 June 2018

ConocoPhillips corporate report

Report summary

ConocoPhillips' 'value over volume' strategy has resonated with investors. The company's shares have surged 53% in the last 12 months. With its solid financial framework, ConocoPhillips is set to maintain the momentum on the shareholder distribution front. Emphasis is now shifting towards growth, which is anchored on two key strands i) unlocking value from tight oil and ii) Alaska. The company is reaping the benefits of its low-cost, oil-weighted portfolio. But if investor sentiment shifts to growth, we believe ConocoPhillips longer-term development pipeline lacks the strength and depth of its peers.

Table of contents

  • Other ConocoPhillips research
  • Executive summary
    • Overview
    • Strategic priorities
      • 1) Delivering shareholder value remains top priority
      • 2) Tight Oil – ConocoPhillips' growth catalyst
      • 3. Alaska resurgence will underpin long-term growth
      • 4) Declining production from the international portfolio; what are the options to offset this?
    • Top North American assets by value
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserve and resource metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie Corporate Service: our response to low oil prices
    • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 51 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • ConocoPhillips share price performance to peers
  • Premium/discount to WM base-case vs WM CAGR
  • Strategic fit of international regions
  • Benchmarking: NPV,10 by resource theme
  • Production outlook by resource theme
  • Portfolio summary: Table 1
  • Top International assets by value
  • Upstream EV vs. upstream NPV10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. NPV, 10 +5 years
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • Reported costs incurred
  • New project returns
  • WM forecast production
  • WM oil vs. gas production
  • WM oil production forecast
  • WM gas production forecast
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie (by region)
  • Oil reserves and resources: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Gas reserves and resources:reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Economic assumptions: Image 1
  • Economic assumptions: Image 2
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Value assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Combined shareholder return yield
  • Cash flow breakeven vs. reported gearing
  • Forecasted cumulative cash flow 2018 - 2020
  • ConocoPhillips net debt outlook 2018 - 2020
  • Top 10 L48 companies by value
  • Top L48 producers: Indexed to 2017
  • Net acreage and well drilled by operator in Eagle Ford
  • ConocoPhillips' US Lower 48 breakevens
  • Wood Mackenzie's estimate of remaining Permian horizontal locations and NPV10, by operator
  • Strategy: Image 15
  • Austin Chalk: Block operators
  • Alaska: Blocks by operator
  • Alaska: Creaming curve
  • Onshore conventional discoveries (2008 – 2017)
  • Willow post-tax economics under different scenarios
  • Impact of tax changes on remaining value*
  • Alaska: Top 5 companies by remaining value
  • ConocoPhillips Alaska production outlook: (2018-2030)
  • Benchmarking: sub commercial resources
  • Conventional production outlook: 2018 – 2030

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    ConocoPhillips corporate report

    ZIP 3.00 MB

  • Document

    ConocoPhillips Corporate Report.xls

    XLS 3.77 MB

  • Document

    ConocoPhillips corporate report

    PDF 2.09 MB

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