Divest to reinvest: YPF's conventional assets dilemma

YPF’s output is now weighted towards conventional resources, although unconventionals will drive future growth for the NOC. We expect the share of conventionals in total production to decrease to 19% by 2030. We also estimate that less than 20% of the remaining upstream value comes from conventional fields. Even assessing emissions intensities, unconventionals rank better. So YPF’s dilemma of whether to divest part of its conventional portfolio is understandable. We analysed YPF’s upstream portfolio to envision a potential divestment process. We identified 39 fields that could be divestment targets. These fields hold 155 million boe of remaining reserves and deliver US$550 million value in our base case. Reinvesting proceeds in tight oil emerges as the most attractive next step – yet lenders and investors may have other plans. The main deliverable for this report is a slide pack, which can be found in the Downloads section.