Insight
Down but not out: how long until the Permian reverts to growth?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
While Permian production has already started declining, don’t expect it to last for very long. Instead, look for growth starting as soon as the end of 2021. The combination of the right price triggers, continued commitment by leading Permian players, and a focus on the very best acreage mean the Permian will not only grow again but in a big way. Nearly 2 million b/d of growth is expected between now and 2025. Which operators will drive the next round of Permian growth and what will it take to add those volumes?
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Permian growth is only taking a pause
- Prices approaching US$70/bbl by 2025 trigger activity
- Only a few robust companies command growth
- Geographically concentrated activity in the very best areas
- Rig count doesn’t need to fully rebound
- Structurally lower oilfield service costs benefit future activity
- Strong growth through 2025 has long-term implications
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Permian production by Macro Oils long-term outlook vintage
- Cash flow breakeven price for select Permian players
- Permian activity by play
- Cumulative Permian D&C capex spend by forecast vintage
- Permian production and associated activity levels
What's included
This report contains:
