Global oil supply short-term update - August 2022

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. On 3 August, OPEC+ agreed a modest 100,000 b/d production increase for September. This was the first meeting since the end of the formal agreement that had been in place since the 2020 price collapse and confirms our view that OPEC+ will maintain its proactive stance towards managing the market. In Libya, production has returned to over 1 million b/d after oil blockades were lifted, following the replacement of the chairman at the national oil company. Overall, adjustments this month are upwards, averaging 240,000 b/d in 2022 and 110,000 b/d in 2023. Increased production in Libya drives the upgrades in 2022 along with Russia, where production is being supported by higher domestic crude runs. High activity levels in unconventional plays have contributed to a strong post-pandemic recovery in Argentina, which is mainly responsible for the upgrades in 2023.