Global oil supply short-term update - August 2025

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Our supply outlook remains stable this month. The OPEC+ group met on 3 August to decide September output, opting for the same accelerated return volumes agreed for August. This will see the return of the full 2.2 million b/d tranche of voluntary cuts by the end of September. Non-OPEC growth remains dampened by recent downward pressure on prices, however support from Latin America is bolstered by rising output in Brazil, as new FPSOs gain momentum. A key risk to supply exists from the latest US threats to add more economic sanctions against Russia. Global liquids supply has been revised down across the forecast period. Upgrades to China and Brazil are offset by downgrades to US Lower 48, Qatar condensate and South Sudan.