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Country Report 01 July 2019

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Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. The outlook for global supply is changing. The pace of growth for 2019 and 2020 is being revised down. Liquids production is now forecast to increase 0.7 million b/d in 2019 and 1.7 million b/d in 2020. Whilst 2020 production growth remains strong, three key factors have contributed to a supply downgrade of over 0.6 million b/d this month: • an extension of production curtailments in Alberta, Canada, through 2020 • a shift in our political assumption for Venezuela - President Maduro is now assumed to remain in power through 2020 • and mounting pressure on Iran exports has forced more production into floating storage. With limited storage availability, and exports falling sharply in June, we have revised our outlook for crude oil production down.

Global supply: initial signals point to OPEC+ production restraint rollover
- OPEC: economic deterioration and sanctions take toll on Iran and Venezuela
- Venezuela’s outlook for production continues to look increasingly difficult in 2020.
- Iran exports fall sharply as sanctions begin to bite
- Non-OPEC supply: delay of Canada’s Line 3 Replacement pipeline points towards extension of Alberta production curtailments into 2020
- Canada: mandated production cuts now expected to be extended, outlook for crude production in 2020 significantly downgraded
- US Lower 48 supply: outlook remains for crude oil and condensate growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019