Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - July 2020
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The outlook for global liquids supply is now significantly lower, largely due to reduced expectations for US Lower 48 output. Total global liquids production is forecast to decrease by 4.2 million b/d in 2020 and then increase by 1.7 million b/d in 2021. This update includes a significantly lower outlook for the US Lower 48. The 2021 forecast changes are due to the steeply declining rig count that continues to diminish. We do not expect to see material rig additions in 2020 as prices remain weak and as operators focus on conserving cash. Other notable revisions this month are downgrades to the outlooks for Russia, and Venezuela, Brazil and Colombia in Latin America.
Table of contents
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Global liquids supply: non-OPEC outlook revised lower, led by US Lower 48 downgrade
- Non-OPEC supply: Q2 downgrades and slower recovery of US L48
- US Lower 48: declining rig count drives our updated view
- OPEC: strong adherence to production cuts from key producers
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