Global oil supply short-term update - March 2025

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 3 March, the eight OPEC+ countries currently committed to additional voluntary production cuts reaffirmed their decision to begin returning some volumes from April 2025, in line with our base case outlook. The decision comes amid high levels of market uncertainty. As of 4 March, the US imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. A 10% exception was given to energy imports from Canada – including oil and gas – highlighting the imperative co-dependency between Canadian producers and US refiners. Global liquids supply this month is revised down by 150,000 b/d in 2025 and 110,000 b/d in 2026, with non-OPEC supply accounting for the bulk of the changes. Downgrades to Mexico, Norway, Russia and Iraq are partially offset by upgrades to China.