Global oil supply short-term update - October 2024

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. At the 2 October meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, no change was made to the plan to begin unwinding some of its voluntary cuts from December this year, should market conditions allow. Our base case remains that the unwinding of these cuts will be delayed, with a phased return starting in Q2 2025. Prices rose sharply in early October as conflict in the Middle East escalated. Security around key production and processing facilities and ports is expected to be redoubled. To reassure the market, producing countries in the region will seek to ensure production, refining and exports are maintained.