Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - September 2026
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Report summary
Global oil supply has been downgraded in 2026 following a change to our assumption of production recovery in the Middle East. Our base case now assumes a sustained stand-off through the end of this year. Middle East oil production remains in limbo until a political rapprochement begins in late 2026, with transit flows to normalise during January 2027. We assume US blockades on Iranian exports are eased with the same timing.
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