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Johan Sverdrup crude hits record US$24/bbl premium as Saudi supply tightens

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In a sharp reversal from the typical 3% discount Sverdrup crude trades at. The move follows Saudi Arabia's suspension of its East-West pipeline and a cut to medium-sour crude arrivals into Europe. European refiners, including Orlen of Poland, expect October cargoes from Saudi Arabia to be disrupted and need suitable alternatives. We look at the impact on company and state cash flows from the unexpected windfall.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • The facts
  • Our take

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

    Johan Sverdrup FOB Mongstad priceDestination of Johan Sverdrup crude, 2024 (volumes in kb/d)2026 company cash flow at different 2026 price assumptions2026 Norwegian state tax receipts from Johan Sverdrup at different 2026 price assumptionsJohan Sverdrup production 2022-2026[

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    Johan Sverdrup crude hits record US$24/bbl premium as Saudi supply tightens

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