We have made significant downward adjustments to our global long term supply outlook. Over the near term the weaker outlook for prices leads to a downgrade to the forecast chiefly for the US onshore. But the stronger recovery of tight oil production now anticipated offsets the affects from project delays for other non OPEC producers. This results in little change to our overall non OPEC outlook during the 2020s. For OPEC downward revisions due to the stalemate in Libya offset increases to Iraq and to Iran based on the nuclear agreement; but political instability and civil unrest continues to affect the Middle East and North Africa.Included in this report is analysis on the marginal cost of new supply and the political assumptions for our supply forecast.