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Long-term oil supply outlook - H2 2015

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08 December 2015

Long-term oil supply outlook - H2 2015

Report summary

We have made significant downward adjustments to our global long-term supply outlook. Over the near-term the weaker outlook for prices leads to a downgrade to the forecast, chiefly for the US onshore. But the stronger recovery of tight oil production now anticipated offsets the affects from project delays for other non-OPEC producers. This results in little change to our overall non-OPEC outlook during the 2020s. For OPEC, downward revisions due to the stalemate in Libya offset increases to Iraq and to Iran based on the nuclear agreement; but political instability and civil unrest continues to affect the Middle East and North Africa. Included in this report is analysis on the marginal cost of new supply and the political assumptions for our supply forecast.

Table of contents

    • Impact of changes to our outlook since May 2015
    • Key changes to our Non OPEC outlook since May 2015:
    • Key changes to our OPEC outlook since May 2015
    • Unconventionals
      • Biofuels
    • Appendix 1: The marginal cost of new supply
    • Appendix 2: Political assumptions for the supply forecast
      • OPEC
      • Non-OPEC

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Annual global production capacity change between the May 2015 and November 2015 outlook
  • Non OPEC regional production
  • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since May 2015
  • Year-on-year non-OPEC growth
  • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
  • US and Canada liquids production ('000 b/d)
  • US liquids supply
  • Canada liquids supply
  • Brazil production outlook
  • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
  • Iraq southern production split by blend
  • OPEC production capacity
  • Change to OPEC capacity since May 2015
  • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
  • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven band ($ Brent)*
  • Conventional pre-FID development volumes by breakeven band*
  • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Long-term oil supply outlook - H2 2015

    PDF 401.38 KB